Executive Summary
2025 was the warmest year in the instrumental record at +1.62°C above pre-industrial baseline. Sea-level rise accelerated to 4.8 mm/year. Antarctic sea-ice extent hit second-lowest recorded. The 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement is now considered virtually unattainable without large-scale carbon dioxide removal.
Introduction
The State of the Climate 2026 report consolidates observations from WMO Regional Climate Centres and provides authoritative 2025-2026 climate indicators.
Background
Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, WMO annual reports have tracked greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature, ocean heat, sea level, and cryosphere metrics.
Current Global Situation
The last 11 years are the 11 warmest on record. Ocean heat content reached a new high. Ecosystem tipping points activated in the Amazon and West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Regional Analysis
Record heat and multi-year mega-drought in Southwest US.
Second-warmest year in Europe. Alpine glacier volume down 8% in a single season.
Record monsoon extremes in South Asia. East Asia flooding disruptions.
Heat indices exceeded human tolerance thresholds in Gulf states.
Sahel triple crisis. Southern Africa drought.
Amazon drought at 120-year record.
Country Analysis
Key Findings
- 2025 warmest year: +1.62°C.
- Sea-level rise: 4.8 mm/year.
- Antarctic sea ice: 2nd lowest recorded.
- Ocean heat content: new all-time high.
- CO2: 424.6 ppm; CH4 record high.
Risks
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet destabilization irreversible pathway.
- Amazon carbon sink to carbon source transition.
- AMOC weakening beyond IPCC AR6 projections.
- Climate-migration destabilization in SIDS.
Future Outlook
1.5°C threshold likely permanently exceeded by 2032-2035 without unprecedented mitigation and CDR deployment.
Recommendations
- Governments: Triple renewables by 2030 (COP28 pledge).
- International bodies: Operationalize Loss & Damage Fund at scale.
- Businesses: Adopt Science-Based Targets with cross-scope 3 accountability.
- Researchers: Advance climate tipping-point observation.
Legal Framework
- UNFCCC 1992
- Paris Agreement 2015
- Global Stocktake 2023 outcomes
- COP28 UAE Consensus
Case Studies
- EU 2040 climate target adoption
- US IRA implementation impacts
- AOSIS Bridgetown Initiative
References
- 1. WMO State of the Climate 2026
- 2. IPCC AR7 WG1 draft
- 3. Copernicus C3S bulletin